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3 Reasons why More Black Swans are In Store for U.S. Economy...

Written by Dennis Ng on .

23 October 2009 by TPC12 Comments

Central Banks and governments around the world have thrown everything they can muster at the financial crisis. And up until now, it appears as though they have succeeded. Equity markets are up 60%+ around the globe and investors are beginning to party like its 1999. But a look underneath the hood shows that shiny Cadillac might just be a clunker (don’t worry, the government will take out a loan so you can take out a loan to turn in your clunker for a new car you never needed to begin with). Unfortunately, as we’ve learned over the course of the Fed’s 20 year boom/bust experiment, sound economic growth cannot be built on the back of a printing press.

The World Can Learn from Japan's Economic Mistakes...by Andy Xie

Written by Dennis Ng on .

Japan hasn't sustained growth bounces for decades, nor will it under the DPJ government. Therein lie lessons for other economies.
 
By Andy Xie, guest economist to Caijing and a board member of Rosetta Stone Advisors Ltd.
 
(Caijing Magazine) Japan has had a political earthquake. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that ruled Japan since the end of the World War II lost most of its seats in the latest election, while the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won 308 of 480 lower house seats, complementing its majority in the upper house.
 
Now, DPJ is in a strong position to undertake structural reforms. Indeed, a big political change brings hope in any country that's stagnated for as long as Japan. However, DPJ is unlikely to turn around Japan's economy anytime soon. LDP, in the name of Keynesian stimulus, spent all its money over the past decade on wasteful investments, leaving DPJ with no resources for reform. I'm afraid DPJ has an impossible situation on its hands.

Anthony Bolton Says Bull Market Is NOT Over...

Written by Dennis Ng on .

By Reuters staff


Published: 10:05AM BST 21 Oct 2009

Anthony Bolton: the bull market is not over

Fidelity's Anthony Bolton said global stocks were still in a bull market and it was not too late to invest now, with technology and consumer sectors expected to lead the next phase of the bull run.

Bolton, whose contrarian bets made him a top UK fund manager for over two decades, told a news conference on Wednesday that growth stocks would be in the limelight, while commodities and industrial companies were running out of steam after their rally.

"The bargain phase is over. But despite the fact the market is well off lows, we expect the bull market to go on. It's a multiyear bull market," Bolton said in Seoul on a trip to mentor young Fidelity portfolio managers in Asia. Bolton is president for investments at Fidelity International, an affiliate of Boston-based Fidelity Investments, the world's biggest mutual fund firm.

He said the first phase of the bull market was ending this year or by the first quarter of next year, but long-term valuations were still attractive.