The Worst is Probably Over does NOT Mean Recovery is here...
The latest retrenchment figures in U.S. is only 247,000, much less than the 325,000 expected. As a result, U.S. stock market goes up on 7 Aug 2009 (Friday).
Many analysts seem to confuse 2 things, yes, I agree that the Worst of the Crisis is probably behind us, however, that does not mean that Recovery is here.
Consumption in U.S. constitutes 70% of U.S. economy. With more people getting retrenched, (though there is a trend of fewer people being retrenched over the last few months) but that does not equate to an increase in jobs and employment. And without an improvement in employment rate, U.S. economy cannot recover.
In reccent months, Global stock markets seem to have priced in a "V-shaped" economic recovery. If there is any information that might lead to a question that the recovery might be "W" shape instead, market sentiments can turn (change aversely) very quickly.
Above is just sharing my personal comments and not meant as investment advice.
