Latest News Increased Chance of a "W" Shape Economic Recovery in year 2010...
Most Analysts are of the view the economic recovery will be fast, in the form of a "V" shape recovery. However, the latest news seems to indicate that "W" shape is possible.
Regards.
Dennis Ng, http://www.MasterYourFinance.com
Share prices have moved too far ahead of economic reality
After hitting its best levels of the year on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) communiqué, the S&P 500 Index ran into heavy weather on the realization that the Fed could start scaling back on emergency support of the economy. US equities dropped further later in the week on renewed concerns about the state of the troubled housing market and weaker-than-expected durable goods orders.
In addition to global stock markets declining, risky assets such as commodities, oil, gold and other precious metals all sold off as pundits worried about the winding down of quantitative easing puncturing the “liquidity rally”. Government and corporate bonds, as well as the Japanese yen, emerged as winners.
David Fuller (Fullermoney), making a successful recovery from heart surgery, said: “… it does look as if Wall Street and other stock markets under its influence have temporarily run out of upside momentum following a good run recently. Supply in the form of secondary offerings has increased. This coincides with understandable October jitters as investors recall last year’s meltdown.
“At this stage of the bull market cycle, a consolidation would have the benefit of preventing overheating. When a larger reaction eventually unfolds it is likely to be a providential buying opportunity rather that a repeat of last year’s harrowing decline - provided monetary conditions remain favorable.”
The S&P is at a level that should be reached in the third year of recovery from a recession, David Rosenberg, chief economist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, told Bloomberg (via MoneyNews). “The fair multiple for earnings should be 12 or 13,” he said. “We’ve blown right through that.” (The S&P 500 is trading at a level equal to almost 20 times reported earnings from continuing operations, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.)
As stated often before, share prices have moved too far ahead of economic reality. This calls for a cautious approach in anticipation of the market working off its overbought condition and fundamentals reasserting themselves. I will bide my time while the fundamentals play catch-up, especially as we could be seeing one of those occasional all-change signals in the short-term trends of a number of markets.
“Bank analyst Meredith Whitney remains bearish on the economy, particularly when it comes to jobs.
“‘There’s not a lot of new job creation going on on Main Street, and the liquidity to the consumer and to small business is still contracting,’ she said on CNBC.
“‘It’s very difficult to get the engine moving without a lot of government support within that. So when you slowly wean government support, that’s going to be the test that I think everyone’s going to be watching starting in October.’
“‘Once companies become more productive do they go back and say I want to become less productive? … You have to have a revolutionary application to hire people,’ Whitney says.
“‘Surely if this country becomes massively protectionist we’ll build up manufacturing capabilities. Is that necessarily a good thing? No.’
“Half of the work force toils in small businesses, she notes. But, ‘there’s not a lot of free capital for small business innovation, small business period’.
“As for the banks, ‘they’re now doing everything they can to keep loans on the books and not write them down,’ she notes. ‘They’re extending and pretending with loans.’”
Bloomberg: Housing crash to resume on 7 million foreclosures
“The crash in US home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group analysts said.
“The ‘huge shadow inventory’, reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.
“‘The favorable seasonals will disappear over the coming months, and the reality of a 7 million-unit housing overhang is likely to set in,’ they said.
“The amount of pending foreclosed-home supply has been boosted by more borrowers going into default, fewer being able to catch up once they do, and longer time periods to seize properties because of issues such as loan-modification efforts and changes to state laws, the New York-based analysts wrote.”
Source: Jody Shenn, Bloomberg, September 23, 2009.
On the topic of wealth destruction, the chart below, courtesy of Chart of the Day, not only illustrates that house prices are currently 30% off their 2005 peak, but also that a home buyer who bought a median-priced single-family home at the 1979 peak has seen that home appreciate by a mere 4% over the ensuing three decades.
Source: Chart of the Day, September 25, 2009.
The US has lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to bolster banks and fight the longest recession in 70 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“There’s not a lot of new job creation going on on Main Street, and the liquidity to the consumer and to small business is still contracting,” bank analyst Meredith Whitney said on CNBC (via MoneyNews). “It’s very difficult to get the engine moving without a lot of government support within that. So when you slowly wean government support, that’s going to be the test that I think everyone’s going to be watching starting in October.”
Richard Koo, author of Balance Sheet Recession and chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, said in an interview with Kate Welling at Welling@Weeden (via Dow Theory Letters): “In this type of recession, the economy will not enter self-sustaining growth until private sector balance sheets are repaired. Until the private sector is finished repairing its balance sheets, if the government tries to cut its spending, we’re going to fall into the same trap that Franklin Roosevelt fell into in 1937 (a crushing bear market) and Prime Minister Hashimoto fell into in 1997, exactly 70 years later.
“The economy will collapse again and the second collapse is usually far worse than the first collapse. And the reason is that, after the first collapse, people tend to blame themselves. They say, ‘I shouldn’t have played the bubble. I shouldn’t have borrowed money to invest - to speculate on these things.’ But a second collapse affects everyone, not just the bubble speculators, and it also suggests to the public that all the efforts to fight the downturn up to that point - all the monetary easing, the low interest rates, quantitative easing - they all failed and even fiscal policy failed. Once that kind of mindset sets in, it becomes ten times more difficult to get the economy going again.
“So the fact that Larry Summers was talking about ‘temporary’ fiscal stimulus had me very, very worried. That whole Larry Summers idea that one big injection of fiscal stimulus will get the US out of the recession, and everything will be fine thereafter, probably led to President Obama’s saying he’s going to cut his budget deficit in half in four years.”
MoneyNews: Richard Rahn - the growing debt bomb
“Assume you had put much of your savings into US government bonds and then you learned the following. In just the last eight months, the Congressional Budget Office estimates of the amount of additional federal debt to be held by the public grew by an astounding $4 trillion for the 2010-19 period; and that the amount of federal debt held by the public grew from $5.9 trillion to $7.5 trillion in just the last 12 months.
“In addition, you learned that the federal government (i.e. taxpayers) now owns (primarily through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) or insures (through the Federal Housing Administration and other government programs) about 80% of the $14.6 trillion of home mortgages outstanding in the United States. Last week, Congress passed a bill requiring all student loans be made by the federal government rather than banks, which means the taxpayers will be 100% liable for any student loan defaults.
“You also learned that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering tapping its Treasury credit line for up to $500 billion. It needs to do this because of the high number of bank failures and because each bank account is insured by the government (i.e. taxpayers) up to $250,000. The president and many in Congress are calling for a roughly $1 trillion health care bill - paid for by additional debt and/or more taxes, which will further slow economic growth, eventually leading to even more debt.
“Finally, you also became aware of the following facts: Federal government expenditures are growing far faster than the economy, and thus the government is becoming a larger and larger share of gross domestic product. Obviously, this cannot continue forever because eventually the government would totally drive out the private sector.
“The entitlement programs (i.e. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.) all continue to grow faster than the economy, and they will take more than 100% of all federal tax revenue this year, requiring that virtually all of the other government spending programs, including defense and interest payments on the debt, be funded by more borrowing.
“You are also aware that the government cannot tax its way out of the deficit situation, because increasing income tax rates on the upper income people will both slow the economy and cause them to find legal or illegal ways to avoid the tax increase, and the politicians have pledged to not increase taxes on those making less than $250,000, which includes all but a very few Americans.”